Nothing too exciting with mostly month, quarter, fiscal year end activity dominating market movement. Euro-zone inflation jumped to record highs, IP in Japan continued to fall taking the Nikkei with it down 2.3% on close of Japanese fiscal year.
JPY - It was all about the fixing. Closed soft in New York on Friday, continuing into the Sydney open, dipping below 98.85 before Japanese fixing demand drove it 140 points to print 100.16. Exporters were at the ready once again above 100 and things are now just a tiny bit higher than where we left them on Friday. Topside offers are expected to remain in place although on this rally a few specs took advantage and light stops have gathered 100.30-50; downside, little to support until low 97s. Eurjpy continues to hover around the 55d, with offers above 158 still capping.
EUR - Record highs in inflation data will add weight to the ECBs concern and gave them more to worry about with Euro. EURUSD has set higher lows over the last week and a short term pivot on the hourlies would be 1.5760. Below there we would expect a look back to 1.56 but still maintain a dip buying mentality while the ECB remains in this dilemma. 1.60 is just a matter of time and with good stops gathering above the old highs it could be sooner rather than later.
NZD - Business confidence fell to the lowest value in 17 years and building consents were off by 6.5% leaving Nzdusd below its 55d. The march low of 0.7870 is close and stops and new shorts are expected to emerge below there, although breaks in Nzd have been tough to catch recently. Audnzd closed firmly above the 200d and opens a look at the 1.1740 early-march high.
GBP - Hometrack noted a 6th consecutive month of falling house prices, cable remains soft with the market now pricing a 72% chance of a rate cut on Apr10. All this served to boost Eurgbp to even headier heights with Option related offers ahead of 0.80 but demand from CB’s for the month-end fixes looks to underpin currently. Cable still not in play until a close below 1.9725.
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