Forex Investment and Currency Trading

The factors that have kept CAD/NOK range-bound are breaking down and bearish risks are increasing. As a result, CAD/NOK will continue to decline in the near term.
Short CAD/NOK is an oil neutral way to capture CAD-bearish economic stresses from the US slowdown that are weighing on the Canadian economy while the European economy, including Norway, displays ongoing resiliency.
CAD and NOK are oil sensitive currencies that strengthened as oil prices rose in recent years, leaving CAD/NOK largely rangebound. Now however, amid USD weakness, oil prices have rallied USD100/b, but CAD/NOK has broken toward multi-year lows as other factors are offsetting any [...]

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Equities were mixed on Thursday, with Asian markets little changed, Europe rising over 1% in most cases, while US markets were lost between 1-2%. Front-month WTI rose USD 1.35/bbl to USD 107.20. That contract has risen in price each day this week and is now the highest since Tuesday 18 Mar. The futures market moved again to price in more aggressive easing at the 30 Apr FOMC meeting. The market now gives a 54% chance of a 25bps cut and 46% chance of a 50bps cut, whereas on Wednesday there was a 64% chance of a 25bps cut and a [...]

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Bit of a strange day in $/asia. Seemed like there was general interest to buy $/asia even during periods when equities looked reasonably strong. Worries about LEH persisted in the markets despite the fact that the Fed has opened discount window borrowings to securities firms.  LEH ended the day down 8.9%and $/asia closed at the highs for the day. Malaysian news hit the tape during New York session as PM Badawi will delay UMNO internal elections till December. 

 
ny open
ny close
high
low

1m cny
6.948/6.953
6.948/6.953
6.953
6.95

1m inr
40.25/30
40.32/37
40.39
40.3

1m twd
29.91/94
30.00/30.05
30.03
29.93

1m php
41.90/00
41.95/05
42.03
41.95

1m krw
986/987
990.5/991
990.5
986.5

1m idr
9240/9280
9240/9280
9250
9210

1m myr
3.2050/3.21
3.2090/3.214
3.212
3.207

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NZD/USD – Must pierce resistance at 0.8095 in order to bring the key double top at 0.8210 back in to view.
NZD/USD reached a price target at 0.8050 this week after the formation of a double bottom at 0.7879. Although recent price action has been defined by a neutral 0.7879-0.8210 trading range, a close above initial resistance at 0.8095 would set the sights on the double top at 0.8210 that forms the top of the range. Prices must pierce 0.8210 (target 0.8294) or 0.7879 (target 0.7698) in order to generate new directional bias, a probe of the topside is in favor based on [...]

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