Forex Investment and Currency Trading

Analysis – Daily Chart
EUR-USD has traded in a very mixed manner over the last few weeks, but a renewed bout of weakness in the EUR is expected to unfold. The fact that the turn above 1.60 failed to hold in April is a useful bearish indication, as is the failed push above 1.58 over the last few trading sessions. A turn below the 08 May low at the 1.5290/80 is expected over the coming sessions, which will help to confirm the next leg lower. Use 1.5817 as near-term resistance now.
Analysis – Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows a strong bull trend [...]

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Slovak koruna & regional currencies
After the market closed yesterday, the Slovak koruna was revalued with its ERM-2 band ceiling of 30.126 per euro becoming its new central parity – thus a 15% revaluation. The new ceiling was set at 25.607.

ECB statement today:

“The revaluation of the central rate of the Slovak koruna is justified by ongoing improvements in underlying fundamentals.”
“The revaluation is based on a firm commitment by the Slovak authorities to pursue appropriate supportive policies, aimed in particular at maintaining price stability in a sustainable manner, underpinning external competitiveness and strengthening economic resilience.”

The point to note is that the ECB [...]

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USD continued to strengthen overnight with DXY rallying up to a high of 72.926 as USD outperformed all the G10 currencies. Comments from the Fed’s Fisher were undeniably hawkish, suggesting that the Fed may hike rates even if the economy is weak and that the market should expect rate hikes sooner rather than later. Demand for carry trades was also evident as high yielders outperformed their low yielders counterparts across the board.
In the US today, the focus will be on the 2nd estimate of GDP, jobless claims, and Fed rhetoric. Q1 GDP is expected to be revised upward from the [...]

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CAD continues to drive lower, testing support at 0.9820/25 (May 21st low), after the surprising Current Account Balance release this morning.  Canada continues to befuddle our economists and traders but trend is definitely clear.  The next target level below 0.9820 will be 0.9715, the February 28th low. 
The interesting thing to note is that most of the country’s key economic figures, outside of labor, have all disappointed (building permits, motor sales, manufacturing shipments, retail sales).  It seems like businesses continue to hire despite the fact they are not building or exporting anything besides oil…to add insult to injury, those employed are [...]

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