Forex Investment and Currency Trading

ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey For the past 3 months, the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index has signaled contracting activity. With business activity having been notably weak in the transportation, real estate, finance and insurance and retail industries, market expects that there was no improvement in April. Non-manufacturing activity will likely remain soft over the remainder of 2008.

Productivity & Unit Labor Costs First quarter productivity growth likely decelerated to about 1.5%, as nonfarm business sector output rose a scant 0.4% annualized while hours worked contracted at about a 1.0% pace. If so, it was the 3rd consecutive quarter of falling labor inputs, consistent with steadily weakening employment reports. With hourly compensation likely rising at an annualized pace of about 6.0%, unit labor costs rose at an annualized pace of about 4.5% in 1Q 2008.

Consumer Credit The modestly better-than-expected retail sales results in March suggest that consumer credit posted a small increase.

International Trade When the Bureau of Economic Analysis compiled the data for the advance report on first quarter real GDP, goods exports were assumed to decline by 0.4% in March while goods imports fell 0.5%, with a modest projected narrowing in the goods deficit. However, with huge rises in imported oil prices in the month, the risks lie toward a wider trade gap. The surplus on services likely held nearly firm at $10.5 billion. Over the remainder of the year, the trade deficit is projected to narrow in response to the sharp decline in the trade value of the dollar and firmer growth among major U.S. trading partners.