Forex Investment and Currency Trading

Oil drives the currency markets, UK Truckers take to the streets plus Qantas and Air New Zealand tighten their belts, reducing plane sizes and hiking fares…
 
 JPY  - For days the local banks have reported heavy selling interest from Japanese exporters above 103.50 but its currently just acting as liquidity to dollar-oil junkies and those prepping themselves for the long summer haul of quiet markets and carry trades. Stops went off through 104.40, Fridays high and the attention now turns to 105.10 (downtrend on the dailies and the January support) - still favour a sale towards 85/90 with close stop but momentum is a concern - break of that level opens up a look to 108 potentially. Eurjpy finally established the 164 handle but with little correlation right now - 165 as likely as 163 - close to either side worth a fade.
 
 GBP  - UK Truckers brought parts of the capital to a standstill and the government looks as impotent as ever. Short sterling continues to crush all in its path, offering no pullback - a BoE policy projection such as this would really condemn the hanging man that is the British Economy. Some consolidation over the last few sessions in cable and 1.9725 once again comes back on the radar, short-term hourlies; consistently lower highs since mid-march raise the pulse for a more concerted move…through 1.9850 may be lethal injection though.

 
 EUR  - Last night Eurusd split the desk, half long, half short - should have realised, initial dip, nasty spike higher and we open where we left off.  Declining French consumer confidence, rising German inflation, sell off in Oil - take your pick. Positioning definitely seems intra-day driven at these levels, although on the dailies we remain close to potential breakdown of the 8th May uptrend - go short again through overnight lows - we’ve pinned the 55d since late April so worth adding on a closing basis.
 
 AUD  - 8th day of consolidation, 50 ticks either side of 96cents - orderbook suggests mild longs with a few stops below 0.9550 but seems equilibrium is in place for now. Audnzd has also calmed in recent days after last Thursday nights kiwi squeeze. Audjpy is now up 12 big figs from the March lows and makes a good case for the summer doldrums trade, especially on a break through 105 in Usdjpy - carry was our friend this time last year afterall - 100.45 is the six month high.