Forex Investment and Currency Trading

there is a story in the FT today about the ECB backtracking and now saying they may produce just one hike - and in July.  Still, the USD has really been bid across the board.  Take USDJPY, for example: Rate differentials have been the story here, what with USD yields skyrocketing and making carry trades more interesting again.  Lots of Japanese selling of JPY overnight drove the pair to a high of 107.73, and 108.00 is now within sight.  108.30 is also a big technical level, being the 200-day moving average.  USD also gained strength against CHF, GBP, CAD and AUD (they had very weak May employment figures out last night), among others.

USDCHF: The proposed mega beer takeover of Anheuser by InBev has lent the dollar some support overnight but the greenback rally has stalled a bit for the past few hours as we await retail sales this morning. The market is expecting a slightly stronger retail sales number on the back of the stimulus checks and higher fuel prices but it doesn’t exactly sound like a reason to be bullish about the US economy if Americans are spending nearly all of their checks on gas. It now seems like a good potential to fade the dollar rally especially with the market once again sitting at the top end of the dollar range. The euro is once again sitting on the lows and USDCHF is once again sitting near resistance. It feels like a broken record saying this but once again, the 100 day SMA (currently at 1.0420) remains an important pivot to watch. We’ve had 14 touches of this level in the past month and have failed every time to close above.