Forex Investment and Currency Trading

FOMC Meeting (June 24-25): Market expects the Fed to maintain its 2% funds rate target at this week’s 2-day FOMC meeting, the first time that it will keep the stance of monetary policy unchanged since last August. Its closely-watched statement will acknowledge a still weak economy and elevated
headline inflation, without tipping its hand as to the direction or timing of the Committee’s next policy move. For the first time since last September, market expects no dissenting votes at this week’s meeting.

June 24 - Consumer Confidence (June)
Continued rising gasoline prices, difficult job market conditions, and now flooding in the Midwest likely offset the positive impact of tax rebate checks, suggesting a further modest decline in consumer confidence.

June 25 - Durable Goods Orders (May)
Transportation orders likely posted a small gain in May, as Boeing aircraft orders advanced modestly. However, with the Institute for Supply Management’s new orders index pointing to slight contraction and the latest Fed Beige Book indicating soft manufacturing, market expects a small decline in durable goods orders.

June 25 - New Home Sales (May)
June 26 - Existing Home Sales (May)
Housing’s fundamentals remain very weak. Payroll employment is declining. Mortgage rates are drifting higher, while banks continue to tighten lending standards, and declining home prices are a disincentive for home purchases. May projection for existing home sales is within its recent sales range. While the range suggests that a sales floor has been established, weak fundamentals will
delay meaningful recovery.

June 26 - GDP / GDP Price Index (Q1 final)
Annualized real GDP growth in Q1 was revised up from 0.6% in the advance report to a 0.9% preliminary estimate. Data released since then suggest minimal net revision in the final report. Domestic demand has picked up in recent months, and with sustained net export contribution, market expect real GDP growth to approach 2.0% this quarter.

June 27 - Personal Income / Consumer Spending / Core PCE Deflator (May)
May’s hourly earnings and hours worked imply a modest rise in wages and salaries, likely enhanced by early tax rebates. Meanwhile, spurred by the rebates, retail sales surged in May, pointing to moderate consumption growth this quarter. The 0.2% rise in core CPI was likely replicated for the core PCE price index.