Forex Investment and Currency Trading

• US June housing starts jump 9.1% to 1.06 mn - driven by multi-family homes – better than expected.  Expectations were for a 960,000.  Multiple homes were up 419 from 294k in May and single family 647k from 683 in May.  Permits were up 1.091 from 978 also more than the 960,000 expected and again driven by multiple-family homes.
• US weekly jobless claims rise 18,000 to 366,000 – better than expected.   Consensus was 380,000.  The 4-week moving average fell 4,500 to 376,500 and continuing claims fell 81,000 to 3.122 mn – also better than the 3.20 mn expected.

Housing starts are misleading – headline is up, single-family home starts are down 5.3%.  That will make the market rethink that stability but as this market is about equities not economics or fixed income the finer details are unlikely to matter.   Claims were better and legitimately give hope that the US is going to get by with less of a massive pullback in growth – the first recession without massive pain perhaps – which may be the best you can say about the data.  Overall, the mood for FX is a continuation of the bounce that started yesterday.  JPY break of 105.80 opens 106.50 test. The EUR 1.5810 is pivotal for 1.5685 test and the rest of the world is back to selling volatility and buying yield.