Forex Investment and Currency Trading

We have seen the difficult periods of 1980-1982 (most severe economic period since the great depression mainly caused by a collapse in housing); 1990-1991 (recession caused by housing); 2001 (Slowdown caused by the equity market) and 2007-2008 (Hosing and credit crisis). In addition we have see a difficult credit period in 1998 (LTCM, Russia etc) and a sudden stock market collapse in 1987.

Looking at the equity market last year and some eerie similarities to 1990 and 1998 is noticed, see below:

• 1981: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce, which peaked at 964.80 on 17th July. By 23rd July it was 4.8% lower and by end of Sept. it was over 16% lower.
• 1982: DJIA having started to turn sharply lower had a short-term bounce which peaked at 843.80 on 21st July.(missing the magic date by 4 days) But by 09 August it was nearly 9% lower
• 1987: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at a new high of 2,520 on 17th July. By 21st July it was 2.7% lower and while it then rallied strongly we of course ended up with a stock market crash in October.
• 1990: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at 3,011 on 17th July. By 23rd July it was 5.25% lower and by mid October it was 20% lower.
• 1998: DJIA was in a solid bull market, which peaked at 9,413 on 17th July. By 28th July it was 6.6% lower and by mid September it was over 20% lower.
• 2001: DJIA hit a corrective high of 10,758 on 19th July (again a small miss of the magic date). By 25th July it was 5.5% lower and by the 21 September it was over 26% lower.
• 2002: DJIA hit a corrective high of 8,765 on 17th July. By 24th July it was 13% lower and by October lower still at the base of the bear market.
• 2007: DJIA hit a trend high of 14,022 on 17th July. By 01 August it was 6.3% lower and by mid August nearly 11% lower

Today is 17th July and we are in the midst of a strong 2-day rally after the VIX retreated from 31% (76.4% pullback level). This is exactly what happened on 13th-14th November last year before Equities once again fell sharply as the VIX rallied from 23%

Is today going to be another 17th July head fake and are we about to see another peak and turn as we have on so many occasions in the last ¼ century.
Well, the days ahead will probably provide the answer.