Forex Investment and Currency Trading

• Mon 21 14:00 Leading Indicators
• Tue 22 14:00 Richmond Fed Survey
• Wed 23 18:00 Beige Book
• Thu 24 12:30 Jobless Claims Wk 7/19
• Thu 24 14:00 Existing Home Sales
• Fri 25 12:30 Durable Goods Orders
• Fri 25 14:00 Consumer Sentiment
• Fri 25  14:00 New Home Sales

Leading Indicators

After posting two consecutive small monthly increases, the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators is expected to give up those gains in June. Negative contributions from the money supply, S & P 500, initial claims, manufacturing workweek and consumer expectations will offset positive contributions from the increase in housing permits, the steeper yield curve and vendor performance.

Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales

A review of recent sales results suggests that housing demand has stabilized, albeit at relatively low levels. Over the past nine months, existing home sales have moved within a narrow range of 4.91 million homes and 5.11 million homes, supported by declining home prices. June’s sales are expected to fall within this range. It also appears that during the last 3 months, new single-family home sales have begun to stabilize within a range of 500,000 units and 525,000 units. Market is projecting that June’s new home sales falls within this range. With headwinds of tighter credit conditions and high mortgage rates, falling employment and declining wealth, a recovery in housing demand is not likely until 2009.

Durable Goods Orders

Indicators for durable goods orders were off in June. The transportation component should fall as Boeing posted a decline in aircraft orders. In addition, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its new orders index contracted in June. While the decline in the trade value of the dollar has boosted growth, the weakening in economic growth among our major partners puts this growth at risk.