Over recent weeks it appears the USD has been struggling with a narrowing triangle, with topside resistance coming from the June 13 recovery high with support coming from the mid-March low (excluding the panic fall before the NY open on March 17).
With lower oil prices limiting downside risks to US growth during the months ahead, it appears the USD Index is resolving this test to the topside. A close above trend-line resistance (currently at 72.37) would open a test of the 100-day moving average, currently at 72.58. A close above the 100-day MA would target the June 13 high (74.31) and the 200-day moving average, currently at 74.35. It would take a close below trend-line support, currently at 71.53, to turn the technical picture back to the downside. In this context, the retained view is that the USD Index bottomed in mid-March and that the 6+ year downtrend for the USD versus major currencies has come to an end.
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