Forex Investment and Currency Trading

MBA Mortgage Applications (Prior: -6.2%, Actual: -14.1%)
ADP Employment Change (Survey: -60K, Actual: 9K)
USD
Commodity currencies continue to lead the dollar bull charge as Aud and Nzd continue to show bleaker economic outlooks. Gold sold off hard and oil is sitting on significant 120.0 support a break of which could trigger a nice dollar rally.  The dollar traded strongly against major currencies making its biggest gain against EUR in almost two months yesterday as Consumer Confidence numbers printed better than expected and oil prices continued to fall. USD rose the most against AUD and NZD as stocks rose in Asia and [...]

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USDCHF: A very similar pattern on the USDCHF chart with the bearish channel providing resistance. Yesterday’s high was also the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from the 8th May high which is at 1.0480. A turn back down in the ST is the danger

NZDUSD: Bearish reversal pattern posted yesterday as the market breaches support at 0.7367. The trend is down and expect a test of the 200 wma at 0.7098. Beyond that, a test of the August 2007 low at 0.6643 cannot be written off.

NZDJPY: Aggressively breaking down through the support area around the 200 wma at 79.82. The [...]

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USD The USD Index appears to be breaking its downtrend as lower gasoline prices lessen downside risks to growth and other economies, especially in Europe, exhibit greater downward momentum.
EUR Signs of weakening growth and falling inflation risks as oil prices retreat set the stage for a steady weakening of the EUR versus developed currencies; EUR/USD set to close below 100-day and 55-day MAs.
JPY With stable BoJ policy expectations, JPY crosses remain vulnerable to risk appetite and relative rate expectations. USD/JPY is likely to remain range-bound with an upside bias in coming weeks.
GBP Sterling has been hit by the sharp deterioration [...]

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The Exchange Commission Discomfort with the MXN – As part of its International Reserve Reduction Mechanism, every three months Banxico announces a daily amount of USD reserve sales based on a simple, transparent formula established since 2003. Arguing the need to compensate US$8.0bn taken from international reserves used by the Ministry of Finance to buy currencies for different federal government needs, on July 25, the exchange commission announced a suspension of USD sales in the upcoming quarter. Only two weeks ago the exchange commission had announced (as it does every three months since 2003), that the central bank would be [...]

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USD
Despite further negative developments in the US financial system, the dollar has remained resilient. Highlighting the ongoing credit crisis, Merrill Lynch announced further writedowns and plans to sell more stock. European equities have pushed lower, driven mainly by financial stocks. US equity futures are in positive territory after positive data releases this morning. Ahead of key US data releases at the end of the week, USD is likely to continue to trade in a range and having weathered the earnings season well, the resilience of USD to further negative news from US financials perhaps illustrates that much of the bad [...]

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