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The New EM

October 16th, 2008 · No Comments

Ok, so perhaps the Scandie moves pale in comparison to the USDZAR move, but we still witnessed 3 standard deviation moves across the board in the scandies yesterday with much of it coming in the last 2 hours of trading in New York.  Theoretically, we would expect to see a move like that 2 to 3 times a year - tops.  To put the moves into trading perspective, I paid a 14 vol yesterday afternoon for a Eursek option structure that I paid a 7 vol for a mere two weeks ago, and despite that increase in premium, the option was at breakeven within half an hour. Over the past 48 hours or so the liquidity and price action in the Scandies has devolved to EM status at many points throughout the day, most notably in NYK afternoons.  This can be attributed to a number of overlapping factors including, but not limited to:  extreme risk aversion,  erratic equity moves, crude sell-off, systemic position unwinding and liquidity traps….  The latter two being the most significant with regards to the moves we saw yesterday. 

Tags: EM Market Overview

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