Forex Investment and Currency Trading

Durable goods orders fell 1.0% in November, less of a drop than our and consensus estimates of a 3.0% decline. The report also showed an unexpected rise in core capital goods orders and shipments, and suggests the trend in these categories is somewhat less negative than previous data had suggested.

Overall orders were pushed down by a 37.7% decline in orders of non-defense aircraft and parts. Core capital goods orders increased 4.7% in November after a 6.6% drop in October (revised down from -5.0%); the increase was focused in computers and electronics (5.9%) and machinery (4.1%). Core capital good shipments rose 0.2% in November after a 3.8% drop in October. Despite the November rise, the trend in core capital goods orders and shipments remains weak; on a 3m/3m annualized basis, core capital goods orders fell to -27.2% in November from -21.6% in October, while core capital goods shipments fell 8.2% in November, down from 7.2% in October. This underlying softening reflects a weakening trend in business equipment and software investment and in real exports.