Forex Investment and Currency Trading

Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell to 38.0 from 44.7 in November, a new record low for the series, which dates back to 1967. The consensus (45.5) had expected a modest bounce in line with the improvement registered by the Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December. The discrepancy appears to be driven by the deteriorating labor market; the Conference Board measure is more sensitive to employment conditions, and the labor index that takes the fraction of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and subtracts the fraction saying jobs are hard to get, fell to -35.8 from -28.4, [...]

[Read more →]

The USD is back under generalized pressure today though volumes are razor thin and business is likely to remain rather lacklustre, from a directional point of view at least, until the New Year. While the markets are being characterized as thin and rather typical of the “festive” period between Christmas and New Year, it is notable that the EUR’s weakness below the 1.40 level continues to attract support. The EUR shrugged off some weaker than expected euro zone M3 data earlier today (down to 8.4% y/y for the 3 month moving average which serves as the ECB’s reference “target”) and [...]

[Read more →]

The CAD is a notable under performer as trading winds down into the calendar year end. M&A related flow through the crosses again seems to be the driver for the CAD softness though slippage in oil prices may also be dragging on CAD sentiment to some degree as the influence of Middle East
tensions fades this morning and crude prices slip back under $40. With little on the economic front today – US house price data, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence – the CAD is liable to remain a slave to the flows in the short run; month end flows could [...]

[Read more →]

Dollar weakness persists ahead of what is expected to be a data-heavy US session with Case Shiller, consumer confidence and Chicago CPI all on tap today. European equities are higher this morning led by autos after the Treasury buys $5bn stake in GMAC late day Monday to help it avert dragging as many as 40% of GM’s 6,500 US dealerships into bankruptcy (GM National Dealer council estimates.) The latest reiteration of CARP (as carmaker TARP aid has jokingly come to be known in the financial industry) follows the Bush administration’s agreement to loan GM $13.4bn earlier this month and the [...]

[Read more →]