Forex Investment and Currency Trading

U.S. Economic Data and Events               
      
8:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls DEC
8:30 Unemployment Rate DEC
8:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls DEC
8:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM DEC
8:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY DEC 
8:30 Average Weekly Hours DEC
10:00 Wholesale Inventories NOV
12:30 Fed’s Lacker Speaks on Financial Conditions in Maryland   
      
The December labour force report is expected to show another sizeable drop in employment of 460K though this will represent some easing from the unexpectedly large 533K decline recorded in November. The jobless claims data, which has proven to be the most reliable leading indicator for payroll employment in recent months, would suggest the risk of an even greater deterioration. On a four-week moving average basis, jobless claims during the payroll employment survey week rose to 544K from the 507K recorded during the November survey week. The recently released ADP data suggest some downside risk as well.  However, the November decrease was slightly overstated. This reflects the fact that the seasonal-adjustment factors expect November to show the largest jump in hiring for the Christmas sales period. The absence of this hiring in 2008 may have resulted in an exaggerated decline in November with this bias easing slightly in December. This bias will likely be reversed early next year as the seasonal-adjustment factors anticipate the laying-off of these temporary workers. Weakness in labour markets is also expected to be evident in a 0.4 percentage point rise in the December unemployment rate to 7.1%.
      
Canadian Economic Data and Events          
     
7:00 Unemployment Rate DEC
7:00 Net Change in Employment DEC
8:15 Housing Starts DEC
8:30 Building Permits MoM NOV

The November employment report showed an outsized 70.6K drop in the month. About half of this deterioration reflected the laying off of workers that had been hired for the October 14 Canadian federal election with the weakness not expected to continue into December. Though some easing in labour market weakness is anticipated for the final month of 2008, the economy is still expected to see fewer jobs with employment projected to drop by 22.0K. The weakness is anticipated to reflect continued declines in manufacturing and reduced hiring by retailers for the Christmas sales period. While the pace of employment declines is projected to slow, the pace of rise in the unemployment rate is expected to quicken rising to 6.6% from 6.3% in November and 6.2% in October. The extent of the rise in the unemployment rate in November was tempered by a 48K plunge in the labour force that is expected to be partially retraced in December.