Forex Investment and Currency Trading

RBNZ Rate Decision - July 30

The RBNZ is universally expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.5% at this meeting. The statement, meanwhile, may adopt a modestly more upbeat tone in light of Governor Bollard’s recent speech (July 14) in which he noted “early signs of global recovery have now emerged” and that “New Zealand looks likely to start recovering ahead of the pack”. Further jawboning regarding the strength of the New Zealand dollar is, however, likely given the Bank’s concern that a recovery will only prove sustainable if it is affected through a rebalancing toward external demand. On balance, market suspects the statement will prove modestly bearish for fixed income with a key focus being upon any possible dilution of the Bank’s easing bias as evidenced by the previous assertion that “The OCR could still move modestly lower in the coming quarters”.

Canadian GDP - July 31

Canada’s GDP is expected to decline 0.5% in May on the back of weaker manufacturing sales, which fell 5.8% in volume terms during the month. The motor vehicle manufacturing component showed exceptional weakness, falling 25.4% as widespread plant shutdowns at Chrysler Canada weighed. The weakness in manufacturing often augurs poorly for wholesale trade, though this was not the case in May, with volumes unchanged during the month. Also tempering the overall decline in GDP was the unexpectedly strong, and broadly based, 0.7% rise in the volume of May retail sales. A 0.5% May contraction would put the call for a 3.2% Q/Q decline on track.

US GDP - July 31

Market expects GDP declined 1.8% in the second quarter, an improvement from the decline of 5.5% in the first quarter. Consumer spending is expected to decline about 0.3% following a 1.4% rise in Q1. Market also expects another inventory
drawdown occurred in the second quarter. Positive contributors to growth should come from net-exports and government spending, which showed a surprising drop in the first quarter.

Summary Calendar

Monday, July 27, 2009

• UK Nationwide House Prices m/m, y/y (Jul)
• GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
• EZ M3 Money Supply sa. 3 month average
• US New Home Sales, m/m (Jun)
• Bernanke Town Hall Meeting Part 1
• NZ Trade Balance, Imports, Exports (Jun)

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

• AU Conference Board Leading Index (May)
• NAB Business Confidence (Q2)
• RBA Governor Stevens Speech
• US S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 y/y (May)
• Consumer Confidence (Jul)
• Fed’s Yellen speaks on U.S. Economy
• NZ Building Permits m/m (Jun)

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

• GE CPI m/m, y/y (Jul P)
• NZ NBNZ Business Confidence (Jul)
• RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision
• EZ M3 s.a y/y (Jun)
• UK Net Consumer Credit, Secured Lending (Jun)
• Mortgage Approvals (Jun)
• M4 Money Supply m/m, y/y (Jun F)
• US Durable Goods Orders, Ex. Transport (Jun)
• Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Economy

Thursday, July 30, 2009

• AU HIA New Home Sales m/m (Jun)
• Building Approvals m/m, y/y (Jun)
• NZ M3 Money Supply y/y (Jun)
• DE U/E Rate s.a (Jun)
• NO U/E Rate (Jul)
• EZ Business Climate Indicator (Jul)
• Economic Confidence (Jul)
• CA Ind’l, Raw Materials Product Price m/m (Jun)
• US Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Jul 25)

Friday, July 31, 2009

• UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
• AU Private Sector Credit m/m, y/y (Jun)
• SW GDP s.a q/q, w.d.a y/y (Q2 P)
• EZ CPI Estimate y/y (Jul)
• Unemployment Rate (Jun)
• CA GDP m/m (May)
•  US GDP q/q (Annualised), Price Index (Q2A, Q2)
• Personal Consumption, Core PCE q/q (Q2)
• Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)