Forex Investment and Currency Trading

• Europe banks should brace themselves for credit card defaults http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02db48fa-7a11-11de-b86f-00144feabdc0.html
• Highest inflation-adjusted yields since 1994 providing the treasury with record demand at auctions as the US prepares to sell $115 billion of notes this week. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awNyge.080yI
• UK banks are set for losses on commercial properties http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6728251.ece
• Fed’s Bernanke confident US will grow strongly again within a few years, sees low inflation
• Fed’s Bernanke supports Tsy’s strong USD policy, says strong US econ to bolster USD
• 7 more US banks closed by regulators bringing total number of failures this year to 64
• Specs nearly double net short Usd positions to a one year high in latest wk: CFTC
• China has no choice but to tightly embrace the US dollar in the short term: FT article
• UK Chancellor Darling to warn banks on loan rates: BBC
• UK July house prices flat, decline by a lesser -7.7% y/y vs -8.7% prior: Hometrack
• Australian Prime Minister warns higher rates are inevitable over the next 18 months
• Japan corporate service prices fall by a record 3.2% y/y pace in June
• China stats economist warns any relaxation in policies risks a backslide in growth  
• China’s PBOC to maintain an accommodative stance, econ still not on a solid footing
• S Korean consumer sentiment rises to highest level since 2002
• S Korean President says it’s too early to discuss an exit plan for the economy
• Eur Area M3 growth moderated further in June. The year-on-year rate declined from 3.7% in May to 3.5 in June, a new record low. The three-month average growth rate decline from 4.5% YY in May to 4.1 in June. However, M1 growth accelerated from 7.9% YY in May to 9.3% YY in June.
• Euro Area Loan growth to the private sector slowed further from 1.8% YY in May to 1.5% YY in June. The June reading was higher than our forecast of 1.1% YY.
• Korea - 2Q GDP rebounded sharply as expected, with exports and mfg. driving the upturn . IP likely picks up in June on the back of enhanced exports

Key Technical Levels

• EURUSD: Decent resistance still remains in place overhead. EURUSD has had good reason to rally over the past week though has failed to do so convincingly. The top of the resistance range is at 1.4365.
• EURJPY: Trading above the 55 week moving average though did not close above there last week. While near term resistance levels may be tested, it is too soon to suggest a multi week rally at this stage
• GBPUSD: The high last week was a marginal overshoot of the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the June 30th high. The current setup still warns of losses ahead in the short term.
• EURNOK: The double top suggest lower levels in the short term
• Crude:  At risk of stretching higher in the short term though we should watch resistance levels closely.
• Copper: Continues to rally and is likely to test resistance levels. The short term trend is still up
• DAX Index: Remains below the resistance levels at 5,302 and 5,383 for now and we would need to see a rally through there before suggesting further gains.