Forex Investment and Currency Trading

EUR/USD – The EUR appears to be pushing the envelop, with spot pressuring the upper boundary of the 4 month bull channel; previous tests of the primary channel ceiling have been followed by a period of weaker, corrective price action. While Friday’s price action is ending the week on a rather indecisive (“doji” session) note, some do not think the EUR is facing a significant correction from the mid/upper 1.50 zone. Rather, the main risk is for price to respect the steeper, shorter term bull channel and for the current EUR rally to accelerate. Structurally, the EUR bull trend is much [...]

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Norges Bank Rate Decision - Release: Oct 28
The Norges Bank is scheduled to announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday 28th October, alongside which it will also release its third and final Monetary Policy Report for 2009. Market forecasts the Norges Bank to announce a rate hike at this meeting. The recent Regional Network Report, on which the Norges Bank has stated it places great emphasis when reaching rate decision, was notably more upbeat on output, and the negativity highlighted by contacts on the price front was somewhat overshadowed by the release of September CPI inflation data which showed the [...]

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Sterling is a the major under-performer overall after some extremely disappointing GDP data renewed speculation that the BoE could extend its QE program aggressively; GBP will trade with a generally more defensive tone through to the early November BoE policy meeting; traders are forecasting EUR/GBP at 93 pence at year-end. The slide in the pound has helped fluff up the USD’s broader performance to a degree but EUR/USD traded to a new cycle high overnight and is starting to look a little more comfortable above the 1.50 level. Traders remain bullish on EUR/USD and continue to look for a push up to [...]

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The CAD remains very volatile; late day gains yesterday have been erased overnight despite some CAD-supportive M&A news – Harvest Energy Trust purchased by Korea National Oil Corp for just over CAD4bn, China Minmetals, the state metals trader, noting at a conference that it was looking to buy gold mine operations in Australia and Canada – and positive data from China. China’s GDP rose 8.9% in real terms in the Q3 year, in line with expectations and underlining the rapid rebound in the economy so far this year; government lending is providing massive support for the economy but positive news [...]

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