Forex Investment and Currency Trading

1-3 Month Euro Outlook
After a month of thrashing around in a broad range, EUR/USD ended June at the top of the range and up 1.5%. In part, this reflects a further 20bp rise in ECB rate expectations, though a parallel move higher in rate expectations in much of the rest of the world, limited EUR’s gain. The view is remained that EUR/USD will not retest the all time high of 1.6018 and that a gentle downward trend is in prospect for the remainder of the year. In the very near term, technical resistance at 1.5840 is expected to attract new [...]

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Analysis – Daily Chart
EUR-USD has traded in a very mixed manner over the last few weeks, but a renewed bout of weakness in the EUR is expected to unfold. The fact that the turn above 1.60 failed to hold in April is a useful bearish indication, as is the failed push above 1.58 over the last few trading sessions. A turn below the 08 May low at the 1.5290/80 is expected over the coming sessions, which will help to confirm the next leg lower. Use 1.5817 as near-term resistance now.
Analysis – Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows a strong bull trend [...]

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This article from the front page of the FT helped to produce a blow-out low in the EURO in Asia hours (1.5284). The EUR shorts were then forced to cover, in Europe, when ECB vigilance on “rates-Thursday” appeared hawkish relative to the market expectations of some acknowledgement of a weakening economic situation in Europe.
There are two key comments in the article, however, that highlight the real situation for the Dollar…one is that Mr. Trichet (not Mr. Paulson) feels compelled to re-interate the US’ interest in a strong Dollar.  The other observation is that the US is a long way from [...]

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Despite a broad-based recovery in equity prices, USD is weaker across the board, with the move lead by EUR and the EUR satellites, CHF, SEK and NOK. EUR/USD traded to a new record high of 1.5968 after higher than expected March Eurozone inflation data. Global equity markets are higher across the board and US futures point to stronger opens today, particularly for the NASDAQ (up 1.1% on Globex) after Intel reported better than expected Q1 earnings after the close yesterday. Press reports that Merrill may announce a further USD6-8bn of write downs when it reports later in the week are [...]

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EUR USD - Price is currently locked within a relatively broad/choppy 1.5350 - 1.5900 interweek trading range. Longer term direction will be dictated by the correct interpretation of the current price action.
The first (favoured) interpretation is one of topping behaviour, prior to primary uptrend reversal. Factors which support this view are the recent upside acceleration (potential blow-off trend ending phase) of the primary uptrend, on approach to the 1.6045/1.6365 target zone (Fibonacci projection off the December 2007 reaction low and projected multi-year channel top), with the subsequent choppy price action symptomatic of sharp changes of sentiment (market participants reluctant to [...]

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