Forex Investment and Currency Trading

 
Crude: The uptrend in Crude is still in place as it goes on to make news highs after having closed above the $119.90 resistance yesterday. There is little on the chart to suggest that the market won’t continue higher. The Long Term targets of $125-$126 are now in sight.

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There is no doubt that the correlation between oil prices and various Dollar crosses has risen notably over the last few years. But it matters how you measure this correlation. For example, if you calculate the correlation between EUR/$ and WTI in levels over the last year, you will get a figure around 95%. This is misleading, however, as the two variables have been trending in the same direction over the period, and that will tend to generate misleadingly high correlations.
To get a better sense of the underlying link, it is more informative to look at correlations in changes. Looking [...]

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Commodity markets have corrected sharply lower as concerns over the scale of financial sector problems have intensified. The correction began on 13 March, but steepened on the 18 March, following disappointment in the magnitude of the Fed’s most recent rate cut, a rebound in the USD (which is believed to be temporary) and a general round of profit-taking to offset losses elsewhere. Also, the recovery in the US equity market in particular
appeared to attract funds away from commodities over the past week, indicating the growing links between these markets as investment in commodities as an asset class has increased.
This is [...]

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