Forex Investment and Currency Trading

“The Dangers of Turning Inward” (WSJ, February 28th-March 1st, 2009)
“Argentina Raps U.S. Over Critical Words” (WSJ, February 28th-March 1st, 2009)
“Sharif Warns That Unrest May Embolden Islamists” (WSJ, February 28th-March 1st, 2009)
“Playing With Fire In Pakistan: (NYT, February 28th, 2009)
“U.S. and China Will Revive Military Talks” (NYT, February 29th, 2009)
“Mexico: U.S. senate to Examine Violence Near Border” (WSJ, February 27th, 2009)
“Tensions Rise in Fragile Bosnia as Country’s Serbs Threaten to Seek Independence” (NYT, February 27th, 2009)
“France Wants Market Protection” (Investors Business Daily, February 25th, 2009)
“Iran Tests Nuclear Plant, In Venture With Russia” (WSJ, February 26th, 2009)
“Russia Girds For Deficit, High Inflation” [...]

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During its recent fall EURUSD seemed to break ranks with any correlation that people focused on, (Interest rate differentials, crude Oil, relative fundamentals etc) severely outpacing any targets these dynamics would have suggested. Bottom line the EURUSD, GBPUSD , AUDUSD moves etc were a function of de-leveraging i.e. issues on the funding side of the balance sheet. In recent days something different seems to be happening suggesting that possibly at this point we should be focusing on the “investment side”.
On 15th July Gold turned down from $988 after posting a perfect 76.4% bounce off the $845 May low. This was the [...]

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Major support exists in the $924-$926 range including the 55 day moving average. A close below here could open up the way for a much more serious correction with the 200 day moving average at $783.
The last time the price looked so stretched relative to the moving averages was May 2006 after which it fell from $730 to $543. The base that time was the 200-day moving average. In addition the 55 week moving average stands at $757.
A weekly close below $961 would also be a bearish weekly reversal for the first time in the rally from $641 in August [...]

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