Forex Investment and Currency Trading

USD-CNY
The central parity fixing was set this morning at 6.8287, with spot currently trading around 6.8258. There seems to be a clear bias to maintain as much stability as possible in USD-CNY spot while the global market turbulence continues around it. USD-CNY non-deliverable forwards which had rallied particularly at the longer end retreated this morning, trading around 7.00 in the 1Y. Further market concerns about China‟s growth prospects could still open the way for a test of 7.10. Medium-term there will be some rises in USD-CNY. This week sees the release of the September trade figures, money supply and wholesale [...]

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Since mid-September, emerging market currencies have depreciated versus non-USD majors by 2.5% on average. This shift is coming after about 2 months of flat performance between EM and G10, which in turn followed an out performance of EM currencies within July. In general, EM FX moves have been related with broader USD trends. EM currencies were rallying during the first stage of the USD rally, from late July to early August. Markets started re-assessing lower the growth prospects
outside the US OECD.
In the process of downgrading ex-US growth expectations, an increasing number of long term US investors started to either cash [...]

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Thailand Local media reported that Deputy FinMin Suchart Thadathamrongvej is expected to be named the new finance minister in Somchai’s cabinet. The report was confirmed by Suchart, who told reporters he has accepted the nomination. While Suchart was critical of the BoT’s tight monetary policy stance under the previous administration, tensions between MoF-BoT have eased considerably following the monarch’s intervention in August and the sharp ease in headline inflation, in part due to fiscal measures. Initial response to the likely cabinet lineup was lukewarm. Concerns over the stability of Somchai’s administration will likely persist in the coming months.
South Korea FinMin [...]

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USD-CNY
Spot USD-CNY had a central parity fixing of 6.8290 this morning, trading higher to just above 6.84. The 12 month NDF remains supported by expectations of a significant adjustment to the pace of trade weighted appreciation. Market is expected to price in further the chances that the strong CNY policy is over and that the Chinese authorities will continue to loosen monetary conditions going forward to support growth. This will also involve greater two-way risk in the USD-CNY spot rate. In terms of economic data, the August WPI should come out some time this week.
USD-TWD
Spot opened this morning at 32, [...]

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