Forex Investment and Currency Trading

USD/CAD is looking quite vulnerable to the downside once again – which is quite the change of tune for this market after yesterday’s run up through the upper 1.12 zone. The rebound since Friday has barely made any sort of real impression on the major retracement zone of resistance and the failure to hold the break through trend resistance yesterday suggests that the underlying trend is lower still. The market is already leaning quite hard on the base of the upward channel that has guided price higher since late last week – a bear flag – and a clear break [...]

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USD/CAD’s sell off was starting to look like it was losing momentum late yesterday, when the CAD was showing the first real signs of potential softness against the big dollar in a while. The USD popped up through the upper 1.09 area overnight before slipping back again; the broader trend against the currency remains deeply entrenched still and corrections remain very shallow and short-lived. Firm commodities should give the CAD a little short term support sentiment-wise a least and the press is noting that with oil prices firming again, some tar-sands projects are looking viable once more. This will be [...]

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The USD remains on the back foot this morning – and perhaps a little more decisively so, with the market finally cracking through USD support points in a number of markets. For USD/CAD, the dip under the 1.1100/50 support zone that has held up the market this week supports view that the USD sell off is perhaps accelerating, rather than abating. This suggests near term risks of a drop to the high 108s/low 109s. Higher oil prices are modestly CAD supportive and while there is a sense that the CAD may be getting ahead of itself in some respects, disenchantment [...]

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The CAD retains a firm profile this morning, making a little further progress against the USD and pushing up to its best level since November against the JPY. (Long CAD/JPY with the idea of the cross pushing up to the 86 area in the short term at least.) Price action today may be on the thin side, reflecting ongoing holidays in Europe and Asia. There is no Canadian data but US ISM and consumer confidence data may bolster the trend lower in USD/CAD if the data provide evidence that the US economy is stabilizing, which should have the effect of [...]

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