Forex Investment and Currency Trading

During the impulsive fall in yields in 1992-1993 the USD (EURUSD) went from 1.4577 to 1.0812 (just under 26%)
In Oct 1993 the turn in the bond market began and while EURUSD was choppy (Sharp bounce followed by a sharp fall that did not set new lows) as the surge in yields began to gather pace EURUSD turned decisively and also surged with the move in yields. The argument here probably being that people bought the bonds and the currency and then sold both.
This resulted in a low to high move in EURUSD from 1.0812 to 1.3852 (28%)
This time around looks [...]

[Read more →]

A number of “fundamental” factors appear to have weighed heavily on EUR/USD throughout the start of 2009, and FX technicians view these depressing factors as unsustainable. In addition, the technical outlook suggests that the pair’s decline is unlikely to continue. EUR/USD made a clear break above trend-line resistance (1.3062) from the December 29 high on Monday, and on Tuesday even pierced the 55-day moving average, currently at 1.3272, before retreating. A sustained move above the latter would encounter additional resistance formed by the 100-day moving average, currently at 1.3403, and a break above this level would suggest a much more significant rally [...]

[Read more →]

GBPUSD: Rallied through the trend across the Nov & Dec lows, which is at 1.4230 today. This trend line provided good resistance yesterday and the near term resistance level is at 1.4350. A breach of that would open the way for 1.4468, 1.4560, the 55 dma at 1.4776 and possibly 1.5374 over an extended period.

[Read more →]

Price action this morning looks like a classic short-term blowout top with momentum divergence.
We have come a long way in 48 hours and remain in a thin and illiquid market.
 Take profit here if you have established position below 1.30 and move to the sidelines with a view to re-entering this position at better levels again.

[Read more →]