Forex Investment and Currency Trading

MBA Mortgage Applications (Prior: -6.2%, Actual: -14.1%)
ADP Employment Change (Survey: -60K, Actual: 9K)
USD
Commodity currencies continue to lead the dollar bull charge as Aud and Nzd continue to show bleaker economic outlooks. Gold sold off hard and oil is sitting on significant 120.0 support a break of which could trigger a nice dollar rally.  The dollar traded strongly against major currencies making its biggest gain against EUR in almost two months yesterday as Consumer Confidence numbers printed better than expected and oil prices continued to fall. USD rose the most against AUD and NZD as stocks rose in Asia and [...]

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EUR/USD – Must remain above key support at 1.5344 in order to maintain bullish outlook. EUR/USD produced a bearish short-term trend reversal below 1.5828 earlierthis week. A close below support at 1.5613 would favour a deeper pullback to the key triple bottom at 1.5344. However this level must hold in order to sustain bullish stance and prevent the formation of a major topping pattern – with a close above resistance at 1.5864 now required in order to underpin a new rally that would highlight the doubletop at 1.6020.

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U.S. Economic Data and Events
                                         
Time    Release                                
8:30    Empire State Survey                          
8:30    PPI / ex F&E (m/m) – June                      
8:30    PPI / ex F&E (y/y) – June                     
8:30    Retail Sales / ex autos – June                
10:00   Business Inventories – May                    
10:00   Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee
15:30   Fed’s Yellen to speak at a conference on stabilizing communities       
The PPI for June is expected to continue to be pressured higher by both higher energy and food prices. However, wholesale gasoline price increases, though still rising at a rapid pace, seem to have slowed relative to the double digit increase recorded in May. Thus [...]

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EURUSD: Continues to stretch higher through Short Term resistance levels. Last week’s strong close has meant that the market posted a bullish outside week as a continuation. While correcting back this morning, the near term support level at 1.5844 has effectively held. It is continued to believe that the uptrend is still in place and the next resistance level at 1.6020 (22 April high) will soon be tested and breached. Beyond 1.6020, should focus on the 1.6350-1.65 area.

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