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Old 05-13-2009, 01:43 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Arrow Australian Dollar - supported by higher interest rates

In the wake of the recent decision of the RBA to leave official interest rates at the highest in the industrialized world, the AUD has remained very perky, testing US$0.7715 early this week and holding just below that level in recent days. In early March, the AUD was floundering under US$0.63.

In addition to the more optimistic tone spreading through global markets as a factor providing support for the AUD, it is clear that the very wide interest rate gap in Australia’s favour is a powerful positive influence. After all, the overnight
rate is 3.0% and the 10 year government bond yield is testing 5% - stunningly high yields in a world that is only too familiar with zero, 2 and 3% handles.

In the near term, the interest rate gap is likely top support the AUD. In its most recent public utterances, the RBA has spelt out a clear reluctance to cut interest rates much further. It has an optimistic view on the Chinese economy, it thinks it
has cut a lot already and it had a view that the extent of the fiscal policy stimulus was sufficiently large have all influenced its defensive position.

The Budget this week outlined a scenario where the government carefully acted to contain the extent of any further deficit blow out. It found some offsetting savings to the new spending plans and has a realistic trajectory in which the budget will return to surplus over the medium term. The RBA should view this relative fiscal rectitude as a green light to consider easing policy.

Further out, the AUD at these levels demands a substantial and sustained lift in commodity prices. The rise in the AUD has out-paced the rise in commodity prices to the point where either the AUD needs to ease back or the rise must be validated by a further spike in commodity prices.

The data flow over the coming week is light, but the two main players in the market – RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and Treasury Secretary, Ken Henry are both speaking. As always, their words will be watched for policy hints – traders will
be looking for more dovish words from both, especially with the inflation outlook pointing to the PCI remaining below 2% for the next three years.
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Old 05-14-2009, 10:16 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Arrow

In the G10, there are much clearer candidates for speculation on early rate rises, should markets continue to adopt a positive attitude to risk – notably Norway, Australia and, to a lesser degree Canada. In all three cases, central bank policy is well ahead of the curve, with policy rates already 120-220bp below this definition of neutral. Note also that these are probably the three G10 central banks that have the least financial instability to deal with. Clear evidence of policy traction in Australia in particular bears this out.
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Old 11-23-2010, 12:29 PM   #3 (permalink)
 
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