[achiever]

Analysis – Daily Chart
The AUD-USD pullback in June and July found buyers on the approach to 0.7700 on 13 July, which has set up pressure on 0.8260 chart resistance. A sustained break higher through this level should see 0.8382 (61.8% retracement of the down move from the 0.9849 high) approached next. Daily momentum indicators are mixed, but the slower MACD indicator is rising again which supports the AUD-USD upmove. Moving average (MA) studies remain supportive of AUD-USD as the 20-day MA (0.8057) is above the 60-day MA (0.7958) and both are above the 250-day MA (0.7265). A bull flag pattern looks to be unfolding here which would leave 0.98 as a possible longer-term target. Shorter-term targets ahead of this are at 0.8500 and then 0.9000, with the latter expected to be difficult to break on a sustained basis. There is some risk that the overbought signals noted in some of the momentum indicators are a warning that bullish momentum is running close to being exhausted. Very short-term support at 0.8100 is worth watching, with 0.7700 and 0.7450 kept as short-term and medium-term support/risk for bulls.

Analysis – Weekly
The AUD-USD 50-week momentum indicator continues to turn higher, which is supportive of the uptrend. MA studies show that the turn lower in spot in July found support at the 13-week MA (0.7966 now), which is bullish as this average is still above the 50-week study (0.7269). The bull flag pattern has a minimum swing target at 0.8500, with flag pole extensions pointing to 0.9800 and higher further out. The underlying view though is that the AUD-USD has formed a long-term top and this is a corrective bounce. However, this should see 0.8380/0.8500 tested, and some scope for a move to the 76.4% retracement is seen to 0.8943. At this area, if reached, look for the USD to start to find buyers for a longer-term move back towards 0.77 and then 0.7450 and lower. The bias for the next 1-3 months though is on grinding AUD-USD gains to persist.

AUDUSD – Three-Month View
AUD-USD is expected to trend higher towards 0.8943 over the next three months and then fade away. Technically, remain long AUD-USD for now, but look to reduce longs ahead of 0.89.