[achiever]

With several local RBA watchers suggesting a rate hike tomorrow is likely - the latest being Ross Gittins of the Sydney Morning Herald - the front end is pricing in a roughly even chance of a 25bp hike (23:30 PM). Some analysts acknowledge there is a significant risk that it could raise rates. At the very least, there is likely to be a hawkish accompanying statement even if rates are unchanged, which would signal a rate hike at the next meeting. The uncertainty behind the precise timing of the RBA's first rate hike is unlikely to stall the AUD's upward trend.

One twist might be that they hike but try and dampen expectations on the pace of future hikes. Investors would likely sell AUD on the initial reading of a text, but over time would come to trade off what they do, rather than what they say.