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The CAD has turned a little choppier in the past day or so; the underlying trend remains lower, but the risk of a short term pop higher – potentially back to the upper 1.18 area – will increase now that we have broken back through the mid 1.16 area. A minor basing formation is starting to form up and the market has
bounced quite firmly – so far – from the exact same lows from early November
(1.1477/78). While sell rallies remains favoured strategy from a broader perspective, market risk is perhaps shifting towards a modest correction at least after 10 big figures of more or less straight declines. Sell USDCAD closer to the upper 1.18 area, using the 200-day MA (1.1899 today) as a risk guide.