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If we don't break 1.1710 this morning the market will settle into the range we've already seen of 1.1566 - 1.1683 for the rest of the day. Watch out for a break of 1.1730 as there is not a lot of resistance until we near 1.19. A lot of option traders are betting on a break-out as option prices are still very expensive despite the market's recent price consolidation. I think the risk is we eventually break higher towards 1.18 given how oversold the market is and the view that equities are overdue for a sell-off. The biggest risk to my directional call is equity markets. If equities turn around and move back into positive territory and crude continues to strengthen, we'll see a continuation of the recent trade of more US dollar weakness. If this scenario materializes look for moves to 1.1477 and 1.1313.