[Dan]

•A monthly close below 1.1122 today would indicate that a change in sentiment is underway for USD/CAD. The resulting long-term trend reversal and possible completion of an “A-B-C” Elliott Wave correction would highlight support levels at 1.0862, 1.0590 and 1.0378 in this regard. Resistance is located at 1.1122 and 1.1534.

•USD/CAD has been in a long-term retracement phase since November 2007, when an oversold monthly study divergence completed a five wave Elliott Wave structure.

•The retracement has failed to sustain breaks above the 1.3000 region despite four monthly tests between October 2008 and March 2009.

•The monthly studies have just issued a sell signal from an overbought extreme – the most overbought level since the last major peak in USD/CAD in 2001-2002.

•Prices are on the verge of registering a monthly close below a key long-term support trendline at 1.1122.

•This trendline has been guiding USD/CAD higher since the November 2007 low.

•Monthly close below 1.1122 would produce a bearish long-term trend reversal for USD/CAD and indicate that a long-term shift in sentiment is underway.

•Trend reversal would highlight initial support at 1.0818, followed by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007-2009 rally at 1.0590 and congestive support at 1.0378.

•Shift in sentiment suggests that resistance at 1.1122 and 1.1534 will now attract long-term selling interest in USD/CAD.

•USD/CAD will have to return back above the trendline at 1.2363 in order to place the USD bulls back “in charge” of this market.