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The bearish call is on CAD despite Canada’s strong banking sector, its public sector balance sheet being one of the strongest within the G-7 and the rebounding US economy offering hope for Canadian exporters. However, the BOC has started talking against CAD strength and there seems no reason why the BOC should convert from its earlier promise of keeping rates low well into summer 2010, keeping the front end of the CAD attractive for funding purposes. Of most interest, is the gas market where prices have declined for several months. Canada is the world’s most important exporter of natural gas and its revenues from gas exports have reached CAD25blnn in 2008 opposed to USD 50bln from selling oil. Canada has seen its terms of trade deteriorating over recent months and that has not been valued into the CAD.

Look at the price relationship between oil and gas. Obviously, natural gas used to be the more volatile commodity which can be explained by the fact that natural gas inventories tend to be small due to high storage costs opposed to oil where inventory costs are small. For instance, the terrorist attack on the US in September 2001 led to a bigger swing in the natural gas market compared to oil where inventories acted as a buffer. In addition, natural gas tends to lead the market when there is an increase of physical demand for energy products. Over the past few weeks we have noticed that the oil rally has not been accompanied by natural gas prices. Even worse, gas prices declined when oil prices increased. At the some time oil inventories reached their highest level since 1982.

The CAD has developed a tight correlation with oil, but some feel that this correlation has been followed blindly as it was not checked against Canada’s terms of trade. Canada is a commodity exporting country and the TSE is dominated by commodity related stocks. There has been a good rally in commodity stocks which has supported the CAD. But, commodity and equity markets are now in retreat suggesting the CAD will give up some of its gains. More importantly, the decline of natural gas prices and weaker prices for non commodity exports has weakened Canada’s terms of trade. CAD seems to have followed the sterling example, trading mechanically to levels not justified by the fundamental surroundings. In the case of sterling, it was the relative equity market performance of the banking sector driving sterling higher from March until August. In the case of the CAD it was the oil relationship pushing the CAD out of line with terms of trade. Weak terms of trade combined with CAD strength do not make any sense when looking at the current account which has moved to a 3% of GDP deficit, developing a 5% swing within the past couple of months.

USDCAD very likely to continue breaking higher

Ignore the threat of a new election, everyone is. USDCAD is expected to trade higher after the release of a current account deficit and the issuance of a USD denominated bond. The USD denominated bond will be the first foreign currency global bond issue in more than a decade. The issue will provide funds to supplement foreign exchange reserves and support current and anticipated IMF lending. Canada's current account deficit widened in Q2 from Q1. The erosion was driven by a large shift in the trade balance. This was the first time in more than 30-years that the trade balance has been in deficit. The investment deficit widened too.

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