[achiever]

Bullish Trend Reversal Challenged
USD/CAD produced a bullish trend reversal above 1.0779 on Friday, suggesting that valuation driven pullbacks to support at 1.0860 and 1.0779 would be expected to attract short-term buying interest for a test of initial resistance at 1.0924. An hourly close above that level would project additional gains to 1.0991. However with stops below 1.0755, triggered on the robust overnight sell off in USD/CAD, the bullish trend reversal is brought into question. However, it would take an hourly close below 1.0728, to start to provide a more definitive challenge to the bullish backdrop. As well, there is support at 1.0695 that helped limit overnight losses and should also prove critical to the bullish trend reversal.

CAD Crosses – Short-Term Outlook:
EUR/CAD: Watching support at 1.5684
EUR/CAD starts the week testing support. An initial test of support at 1.5684 on the sharp CAD move overnight did not hold, but another test is brewing. Below there watch support at 1.5613/57 and 1.5560, which is also a key medium term trendline support. Resistance starts at 1.5764 and 1.5808.

GBP/CAD: Focused on 24-year low at 1.6902
GBP/CAD is breaking support levels and is targeting 1.7056, on a break of 1.7100. It would take a rally above 1.7300 to generate a change in bearish sentiment. Below 1.7056, focus on medium-term support at 1.6902, which is the 24-year low in GBP/CAD.

CAD/JPY: Trendline at 83.91, Key to Direction
CAD/JPY spike to 84.03 does not quite challenge resistance at 84.20, but modest pullback does highlight topside. Focus on 83.91, which is broken trendline support from the January low. Though broken, CAD/JPY has failed to extend the sell off, and the trendline remains in play. Support at 81.37, the 200-DMA.