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10-09-2009, 08:27 AM
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#1 (permalink)
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MrForex Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 74
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CAD Technical Outlook - USDCAD target to par
USD/CAD – Thursday’s closing break below the base of the running consolidation in place since early August should seal the USD’s near term fate; the technical damage has been done and new lows beckon, possibly quite quickly. There will be limited scope for the USD to recover at the moment and although the short term trend may look somewhat mature, momentum indicators suggest a deeply entrenched medium term move lower persists. USD rallies will be short-lived and there for the selling. After trading in a 5 big figure range, the breakdown should target a move to par at least. From here, we look for strong resistance between 1.0550/1.0630 (and we suspect rather strongly that a 1.06 handle may be out of reach for now) and we still want to sell modest USD gains – soon.
EUR/CAD – The cross has pushed decisively below short term support (Head & Shoulders top neckline) at 1.5530; short term daily MA (11 and 21-day) signals are rolling over bearishly. After the major trend reversal signal highlighted on the weekly chart last week, this week’s developments confirm the near term outlook for a sharp move lower in the cross. The H&S formation targets a test of 1.50 approximately, within the next 4-8 weeks. From here, we expect limited scope for a EUR rebound and think gains are likely to be limited to the low 1.55 area (a retest of the neckline area is an opportunity to sell); important resistance now stands at 1.5700/10. Sell rallies.
GBP/CAD – The bid under the pound evaporated yesterday and the cross has slumped to new lows this morning. Below the 1.6730 January low, today’s slide takes the cross to a fresh 25-year low. Minor support stands at 1.6350, then the all time low of 1.4578 (February 1985) are the only notable downside points from here.
CAD/JPY – The surge in CAD/JPY has taken the cross through near term channel resistance to test the key 55-day MA – which seems to be something of a medium term bellwether for this cross. After the double rejection of the 200-day MA in the past week or so, the CAD looks poised to take off – which is a little frustrating as we tipped the cross to rally after the first bounce from the 200-day MA, only to be stopped out on the retest. The market’s reaction to the 85.75/86.25 range (55 day MA, as noted above, and “cloud” chart resistance) will be key; a decisive push through here in the short term targets a move to 87.75 at least. Buy dips.
Last edited by LFX; 10-09-2009 at 08:30 AM.
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12-07-2011, 03:31 PM
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#2 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Cape Verde
Posts: 22
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12-26-2011, 09:06 PM
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#4 (permalink)
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Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 343
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How To Authorize Lover
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01-12-2012, 05:09 PM
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#5 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 9
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Kaffu, Nemrok and Ur-Gosh: Mongolia
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01-12-2012, 05:10 PM
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#6 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 9
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Ines, Pakwan and Cruz: Reunion
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01-30-2012, 06:27 AM
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#7 (permalink)
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Argentina
Posts: 43
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02-01-2012, 03:54 PM
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#8 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Cameroon
Posts: 22
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02-04-2012, 07:51 AM
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#9 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Norfolk Island
Posts: 23
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02-04-2012, 07:57 AM
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#10 (permalink)
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Junior Member
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Senegal
Posts: 3
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