• The S&P 500 has indeed closed above the 200 day moving average. Let us examine what happened around the 200 day moving average on the last few occasions
o May 2008: S&P 500 breached the 200 day moving average but failed to close above it and started to trend lower. It marked the peak on the bear market rally up. This time it is different in that the S&P 500 has actually posted a close above the 200 dma.
o Late December 2007: The S&P 500 closed above the 200 day moving average for two sessions and then started to trend lower.
o Early December 2007: The S&P 500 posted three closes above the 200 day moving average but, again, is was a correction up and was followed by aggressive moves down throughout December 2007 and especially Jan 2008
Additionally the S&P 500 still has to overcome the Jan 2009 high at 944. A close above there would have to be respected and it could then open the way for a stretch higher. Until then, the close above the 200 day moving average in itself does not appear to be enough to indicate a significant move higher
S&P 500 closed above the 200 dma
Linear Mode
