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Old 05-29-2009, 08:26 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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Arrow EURO - Trees Don’t Grow to the Sky

With the overnight moves seen in the EUR, it’s hard to believe that the phrase isn’t true. The EUR has come a far way in a short amount of time. The orderly sell-off of the USD has pushed the EUR to a high of 1.4135. With all this movement, it becomes easy to think that 1.45 is a reasonable target in a short amount of time. EUR buyers were hoping for a dip below 1.38; however, the dip never came. Now you can expect dips to be limited; 1.4075 looks like a key level to buy on dips. Onshore Toushin flows that helped the USD against the JPY abated. As soon as these flows stopped, real money JPY buyers entered the market and brought USDJPY back to a low of 95.71. These moves appear to be about USD weakness and not risk aversion. In terms of data India’s Q1 GDP came out much better than expected at 5.8%. Industrial production for Japan and South Korea also came in better than expected. US Q1 GDP came in worse than expected at -5.7% vs consensus of -5.5%
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