[DanRath]

The risks for the euro are now building. The failure to take advantage of the more favourable market conditions over the past few days suggests that the euro will now be increasingly exposed as the news and data turns more negative. Indeed, the Eurozone Industrial New Orders data has provided a major negative surprise, falling 0.2% m/m against market consensus forecasts for a 1.9% m/m rise. This does not bode well for the industrial production data and is consistent with the view that any recovery in the eurozone is going to lag a global pick up. Hence, some maintain a medium term bearish euro outlook. But, in the near-term the ability to hold above the 1.4145 level will allow gains to be extended back towards 1.4275 and even the 1.4340 June high. However, these gains are very much viewed as the latter stages of the recovery trend. The most immediate risk is Friday’s IFO where disappointment looms in some' view. A beak below the 1.4145 level would confirm that the EURUSD uptrend is coming to an end.