ADP US private payrolls fell considerably less than expected
The ADP National Employment report revealed a contraction of 491,000 in private payrolls in April, below expectations for a 645,000 decline. This is the smallest monthly drop in ADP private payrolls since October. The data were revised to show a 708,000 reduction in March versus a previously reported 742,000 drop. Although market caution against putting too much weight on the ADP data given the recent change in methodology, this does suggest that non-farm payrolls may surprise on the upside on Friday. Some forecast for non-farm payrolls due to release this Friday to fall 575,000, which would be the smallest monthly drop since October. Unemployment rate is expected to increase to 8.9% in April from 8.5% in March.
Also this morning, the job placement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, reported 132,590 announced US layoffs in April, down from 150,411 in March, but up 47% y/y. This is the lowest y/y growth rate since September; another signal that the pace of job cuts is moderating. Also on an encouraging note, hiring intentions rose to 27,062 in April from 19,309 in March. This left hiring intentions 137% above April of last year.
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