[ForexNews]

After yesterday's US data disappointed with a drop in consumer confidence, sending equities down and the USD higher, today's data so far (higher global PMI's) is moderately risk positive and the USD has weakened accordingly. Euro/dollar recovered from its 150 point drop yesterday to open here a penny higher at 1.4120 and subsequently broke over 1.4150 resistance to a 3 week high. Earlier, USD buying was attributed to Fed Gov. Yellen's comment that the US recovery would be slow, rates could be near zero for 2 years, and the USD is still #1 in reserves. But then US data became the focus: ahead of tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls, the ADP private sector employment number was disappointing, -473K, but May was revised from -532k to -485k and Euro/dollar jumped. Challenger data showed a slowing pace of layoffs, lower y/y for the first time in 16 months but 1H still worst since records began in 1989. Earlier PMI releases pushed European equities up 1.5%, though China and Japan (Tankan) were expected higher than they printed; UK manufacturing PMI rose most in a year and EZ June PMI was revised up to an 8 month high. German retail sales surprised higher but rising unemployment may well restrain further gains. Biggest mover today is the loonie, USD/CAD down 200 points, CAD finally catching up to risk-related commodity currencies AUD and NZD. Euro technicals suggest upside is likelier path, targeting 1.4338.

Just out - ISM close to expectations at 44.8, and Euro/dollar steady but employment component much higher and this should be risk+, Euro/dollar+.