Who will hike first?
With liquidity conditions normalizing and the global macroeconomic back drop continuing to improve, the market's attention is turning to the question of which central bank will be the first to hike rates? Some view has been that the RBA and RBNZ would likely to be the first of the G10 central banks to hike rates and that this (amongst several other factors) would lead to AUD and NZD to outperform other G10 currencies. This advantage is now being gradually eroded, especially against other risk-correlated currencies. The Norges Bank statement yesterday was relatively hawkish. Economists now expect a rate hike in February 2010. The BoE's inflation report overnight was less dovish than market had been expecting and they are now calling for an MPC rate hike (50bp).
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