The Calm after the Storm
Flows are still low and slow coming off of the Easter and Passover weekend. London is also closed today for Easter Monday. Nonetheless, this week is packed with data releases from China and the US. To start off the news, China's trade balance soared to 19.8bn from a previous low of 4.8bn USD. Money and credit extension also reached record levels for the month of March coming in at 2trn RMB, 30% yoy growth. Most of this growth is attributed to the stimulus package and additional spending on infrastructural development. The increase in money supply caused the FCI for China to loosen by 2% last month for a total loosening of 5% since last November. China Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 5.9% yoy or 4.5% qoq. Also in the region, the Monetary Authority of Singapore will meet at 8pm NYC time to discuss the revaluation of the SGD. Analysts expect the authorities to lower the band for the SGD allowing it to weaken. Coming out of the US this week will be retail sales, industrial production, PPI, CPI, and initial jobless claims. We expect industrial production to be -1.0%, retail sales of -0.5%, and PPI to be flat.
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