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Stage 1: Re-stocking at home and abroad will give a first boost to GDP in 2H 200. For export-oriented economies such as Germany, this will show up in domestic inventories and a rebound in net exports as trading partners re-stock.

Stage 2: After 2-3 quarters of rebounding industrial output and capacity utilization rates, business investmentcan start to recover in 1H 2010 from its current very low levels. For Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, this will show up in less dismal exports of investment goods and some recovery in domestic machinery investment.

Stage 3: Unemployment is likely to stabilize next spring. As consumers worry less about losing their job, consumer spending can start to expand again in 2H 2010, making the recovery truly self-sustainable.