[Jason_Lim]

If there is going to be a jobless recovery, it is more likely in the slowly recovering, over-employed countries of Europe than the faster recovering under-employed US. The US is one of the few places on earth where the decline in employment was significantly higher than the decline in production.

United States: Housing: trick or treat Not only is the US likely to see positive job growth early next year, the growth in US housing activity is real. While tax credits and distressed property sales may be influencing both sales activity and prices, the rebound in activity is also due to the releasing of pent-up demand by improved affordability and is likely to be sustained by improving credit conditions along with the aforementioned gradual improvement in labor markets.

Euro area: Recovery unfolding Incoming business sentiment and industrial orders data continue to point to an unfolding economic recovery in the Eurozone. Should the current pace of improvement be sustained, GDP growth late this year and early next year could surprise to the upside.

United Kingdom: Still in recession, so more QE But all is not well across the pond. The UK economy contracted another 0.4% in the third quarter – notably below market expectations of a small 0.2% gain, and only a slight improvement from the 0.6% decline in Q2. The UK economy has now been in recession for 6 quarters, over which period GDP has fallen nearly 6%.

Latin America: Brazil shines in job market recovery Labor markets deteriorated significantly in LatAm. In countries like Mexico unemployment has risen to record levels, while in others like Chile it has also reached five year highs. The main exception is Brazil, where unemployment has surprised significantly remaining below 2007 levels, reinforcing the view of Brazil’s lead in the recovery.

[Jason_Lim]

The upcoming week is loaded in economic data and market expects to see a moderating inflation against improving economic growth. The data kicks off in Korea where analysts expect real GDP to rise on the back of a strong revival in industrial production. In the US, the initial estimate for third quarter GDP is released and market is forecasting 2.5% annualized growth, which would be the first positive quarter of economic growth in over a year. On the inflation front, headline consumer prices are expected to remain negative on a year-over-year basis across the Eurozone. And, in Japan, deflation deepens on core consumer prices in the face of a wide output gap.

[Jason_Lim]

Monday, 26 October

Israel BoI rates decision (Oct)
Singapore Industrial output (Sep, yoy)
Germany GfK consumer confidence (Nov)
Korea Real GDP (3Q09, yoy)

Tuesday, 27 October

Eurozone M3 (Sep, yoy, sa)
UK CBI distributive trades (Oct)
US Case Schiller composite 20 (Aug, yoy)
US Consumer confidence (Oct )
– India RBI rate decision

Wednesday, 28 October

Australia CPI (Q3, yoy)

South Africa CPI inflation (Sep, yoy)
US Durable goods orders (Sep)
US Durables ex transportation (Sep)
– Germany CPI (Oct, mom, P)

Thursday, 29 October

Germany Unemployment change (Oct)
UK Mortgage approvals (Sep)
Eurozone Business climate indicator (Oct)
Eurozone Consumer confidence (Oct)
US GDP (3Q A)

Friday, 30 October

Japan Nationwide CPI (Sep, yoy)
Eurozone CPI (Oct, yoy, E)
Eurozone Unemployment rate (Sep)
US Personal income (Sep, mom)
US Personal spending (Sep, mom)
– Japan BOJ rates decision