Central bank doubleheader – BOE & ECB
On another exceptionally busy day, policy dominates the headlines with the standard BOE/ECB doubleheader. The BOE is likely to be more of a market mover, as markets are looking for some sort of expansion of their asset purchase program from GBP175bn to either 200 or 225. Markets also expect rates unchanged at 0.50%. While the more aggressive expectations on the +50bn side (to 225bn) may have faded a bit, markets still seem to expect some additional action after the exceptionally disappointing Q3 GDP report. However, the BOE could well surprise, especially given the generally noisyness of that GDP report, so markets will have exceptional uncertainty going into the meeting. The ECB meeting should have much less action. Markets generally look for little out of the ECB, and economists expect the European Central Bank to slightly upgrade its economic outlook in its November statement. They note that the key ECB themes this Thursday will likely remain that rates are appropriate, that inflation will stay subdued and that the economic recovery will be gradual and uneven. Of course, there is also the press conference afterwards, so FX markets will be fixed on that as well.
Last edited by ForexNews; 11-05-2009 at 10:14 AM.
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