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Old 04-16-2009, 11:39 AM   #1 (permalink)
AndrewWoo's Avatar
 
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Post China is on its path to recovery

The focus overnight was on releases of Chinese economic data for the first quarter. GDP for the quarter came in at +6.1 y/y—lower than expected, consensus was +6.3. In fact, it was the lowest reading since 1992. Nonetheless, equity markets remained flat. Possible supporters of the market include, better than expected industrial production of 8.3%y/y (3.8 previous, 6.0% consensus). This strong print reinforced the view that China is already on its path towards a global recovery. In addition, year-to-date fixed asset investment (FAI) growth strengthened to 28.6% y/y in March (26.5 y/y previous, consensus 26.5) Retail sales were also stronger than expected at 14.7% (14.5% consensus). These three factors combined helped to keep equity markets stable despite the worse than expected GDP. Turning over the Europe, IP was down -17y/y. This is indicative of the manufacturing pains currently in Europe. In the US, initial jobless claims out today will be a key. A better than expected number could signal a peak in unemployment. U.S. jobless claims 4-wk average fell to 651,000 April 11 week from 659,000 prior week. Continuing claims rose to 6.02M for March.
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