US pending home sales surged to their highest since March 2006
Pending home sales jumped 3.7% m/m in October, considerably above consensus expectations for a 1% decline. This marked the ninth consecutive monthly gain and brought the index to the highest level since March 2006. Sales increased 19.9% in the Northeast, 11.6% in the Midwest and 5.4% in the South. This more than offset an 11.2% decline in sales in the West - the first monthly drop since February. Sales have been consistently strong in the South but have been choppy in the Midwest and Northeast. As such, it is possible that the sharp gain in these regions could be attributed to noise in the data. Nonetheless, this was decidedly a strong report, showing a further pickup in housing demand. It is likely that part of the strength reflects the last-minute rush to receive the tax-credit before it was believed to expire at the end of November. That said, pending home sales track signed purchase agreements, so it is unclear how many homebuyers thought they would be able to close on purchases in time to receive the credit.
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