FEb 5 - Market Event - Nonfarm Payrolls (January)
After almost two full years of job losses, with over 7 million jobs being lost, the U.S. economy appears to be on the verge of reversing the tide and beginning to create jobs on a consistent basis. This effort is likely to be bolstered in the first quarter of the year by the surge in 2010 Census related hiring, when as many as 1.2 million additional temporary jobs will be added to payrolls. Given that most of this hiring will likely occur in the latter part Q1, with mass canvassing to begin in May, analysts expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by only 25K jobs in January. The slow pace of rebound in labour market conditions has become evident in recent weeks, with the level of jobless claims accelerating slightly in the past few weeks. The job gains are likely to be concentrated in the services-producing sector, while the goods-producing sector should shed jobs for the 25th straight month. The rate of joblessness should remain unchanged at 10.0%. Note also that the final benchmark revisions to last year’s estimates will also be published in this report, and these are could be somewhat worse than the preliminary estimate of -824K. In the coming months, market expects the pace of job creation to gather steam, particularly on account of the 2010 Census hiring.
|