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Old 04-21-2009, 08:50 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Post Today's FX Market

$CAD and equity performance is a strong theme for the Aussie this morning. We are likely to be range bound today within the recent days ranges. RBA minutes last night highlighted that the decision to cut rates at the most recent meeting was a close call. A negative also for the Australian currency is the fact that commodity markets are also reacting to the sell off in equities, and the concern about growth. Copper and Nickel have fallen considerably in the past few days, and Nickel is off 5% again in London this morning. Gold however has begun to seen both physical buying in the bullion and coin markets, and safe haven buying so this could be a support of sorts for the Australian dollar.

Euro after dipping below 1.29 rallied on stronger ZEW sentiment numbers this morning, and has recovered ground against both the GBP and the JPY. Euro remains hampered however by the split within the ECB panel about how to manage the GFC going forward. This will restrain Euro, and keep it pressured on rallies.

For the NZ dollar today we have seen a good recovery from the lows overnight, but still favor selling the NZD on rallies.

Elsewhere the Riksbank in Sweden joined those on the QE bandwagon, easing rates to a record 0.5% and announcing unconventional measures. $SEK has eased from its highs, but the SEK has lost ground this morning to the dollar.

It has been a heavy schedule for earnings releases so far this morning with most disappointing markets. It is fair to say that we need to look further down the track before forming opinions on trends, which will leave the markets trade in the short term off the release headlines.
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