[FXJourney]

�� USD/CAD has a negative correlation with the G7 OECD Leading Indicator.
�� Periods of growth and expansion tend to benefit the CAD and vice-versa.
�� Note that USD/CAD posted a bullish long-term trend reversal in 2008 as the Leading Indicator pierced long-term support.
�� Recent reversal higher in the Leading Indicator has caused USD/CAD to turn lower and approach parity again.



�� Investment themes driving the CAD have evolved since 2004.
�� “Petro-currency”theme was a catalyst for CAD strength in 2005-2006.
�� The role of China and base metals came to the forefront in 2006.
�� Huge thematic shift took place in H2 2008.
�� Crude oil correlation became less significant, while the role of equity markets gained prominence.
�� Risk aversion theme using equities as a proxy.
�� Yield spreads also gaining a little more traction now.

[FXJourney]

�� USD/CAD reached downside price targets at 1.1300 and 1.1050.

�� Bearish trend reversal below 1.1318 ended a potential “A-B-C”Elliott Wave corrective phase.

�� Accompanied by monthly studies generating a sell signal from overbought levels.

�� Studies retain downside momentum.

�� Monthly close below nearby support at 1.0323 would highlight parity, followed by 0.9713 and 0.9372.

�� Resistance at 1.0960 and 1.1694 expected to attract selling interest.

�� Must trade above 1.2947 in order to generate a bullish trend reversal.